When the Cleveland Browns traded Myles Garrett to the Los Angeles Rams, the betting market moved fast. The Rams went from +800 to +650, then to +600 — sitting comfortably as the consensus Super Bowl favorite heading into the 2026 season. The narrative writes itself: two-time Defensive Player of the Year, Matthew Stafford returning as MVP, Davante Adams leading the league in touchdowns, and Puka Nacua finishing as an Offensive Player of the Year finalist. On paper, this is a complete team.
But the real question isn't whether the Rams are good. They clearly are. The question is whether +600 actually represents value — or whether the Garrett trade triggered the kind of public money flood that inflates a number past where it should be.
What the Rams Got
Let's be clear about what Myles Garrett brings. He's not a good pass rusher — he's arguably the best defensive player in football. Two-time DPOY. Elite against both the pass and the run. The kind of player who changes offensive game plans before the snap. The Rams gave up Jared Verse (a legitimate two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher himself), plus a 2027 first, a 2028 second, and a 2029 conditional third that escalates to a first if Garrett is traded within the AFC North.
That's a steep price. Verse was no throw-in — he was a cornerstone of this defense. The Rams are betting that Garrett at a heavily back-loaded cap hit ($8.1M in 2026, rising to $21.4M by 2028) gives them a title window right now, with Stafford still playing at an MVP level.
The Current Odds Landscape
| Team | Super Bowl Odds | Implied Probability | Conference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | +600 | 14.3% | NFC |
| Baltimore Ravens | +1000 | 9.1% | AFC |
| Buffalo Bills | +1000 | 9.1% | AFC |
| Kansas City Chiefs | +650 | 13.3% | AFC |
| Seattle Seahawks (defending) | +1000 | 9.1% | NFC |
The market has the Rams roughly 5 percentage points ahead of the next tier. ESPN's FPI projections back this up at 14.9% — nearly matching the implied probability at +600. That's a signal that the market is fairly efficient here. The Rams are the favorite because the model says they should be.
The Case For Betting the Rams Now
The best reason to bet the Rams at +600 is Stafford. He's coming off an MVP season, is still playing at an elite level, and now has the best pass rush in the NFC protecting leads behind him. Garrett doesn't just generate sacks — he controls games. When you have a defense that can get off the field on third down and a quarterback who can manage a lead, you have a Super Bowl formula.
The rest of the offense is stacked too. Adams finished with the most touchdown catches in the league. Nacua is one of the most dangerous slot receivers in football. Kyren Williams gives them a legitimate ground game. This roster, top to bottom, is the most complete in the NFC.
And the NFC is genuinely soft at the top. The Seahawks are the defending champions but relied heavily on a run of favorable matchups. The Lions are legitimate contenders but lost key pieces in free agency. The Rams have the clearest path through the conference.
The Case Against
Here's the honest counter: +600 is a short price to bet on a team to win the Super Bowl. You need to be right about a lot of things — health, bracket luck, no Stafford regression, the replacement for Verse not being a step down, and the cap structure holding through January. That's a lot of dominoes.
The Chiefs sit at +650, essentially the same odds, and have Mahomes. If you're looking for "best team in football" value, Kansas City has won this debate before and will again. The Bills at +1000 with Josh Allen represent significantly more payout for a team that's a credible Super Bowl contender.
There's also a historical caution here: teams that make blockbuster offseason acquisitions and enter the season as clear market favorites underperform their odds more often than not. The 2022 Rams went all-in and won — but that's the exception. More often, these teams get beaten by injuries, scheme adjustments, or simply the randomness of a one-game playoff format.
Our Verdict
The better value bets in this market: Bills at +1000 (Mahomes-level QB at a significant discount), and Chiefs at +650 if you believe in the dynasty. On the NFC side, Lions at +1200–1400 if you can find it represent real value against a Rams favorite that may have been inflated by public money following the Garrett news.
The Rams are a team worth having on your board. They're built to win now, the coach (Sean McVay) knows how to maximize talent, and Garrett gives them a dimension they've never had. We're not fading them — we're just not paying +600 for the privilege when better prices exist on teams with nearly equal upside.
Check our NFL futures picks to see where we've put our money for the 2026 season.