Preseason opens in two weeks and the futures market is fully priced — which means the window for real value is already narrowing. Once teams start playing games and injury news hits, the best preseason prices disappear fast. Here are our top futures plays for 2026, with odds current as of late July. Full division breakdowns are in our 2026 NFL Season Preview.
Top 2026 NFL Futures Plays
Super Bowl Futures: Where the Value Is
The Super Bowl market right now is heavily concentrated at the top. The market has a handful of 5-1 to 8-1 favorites (Kansas City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Dallas) and then a sharp drop to the mid-range tier at 10-1 to 20-1. The best value is in the mid-tier teams that have real Super Bowl upside but are priced like long shots because the market is following narrative rather than roster construction.
Los Angeles Rams — +800 Super Bowl
The Myles Garrett trade reshapes the NFC West. The Rams got the best defensive player in football and paired him with a veteran coach in Sean McVay, an elite offensive system, and Matthew Stafford — who, when healthy and protected, is still a top-10 quarterback. The defense was the missing piece after losing Donald's production; Garrett fills that gap and then some.
+800 on a team with this ceiling is the clearest Super Bowl value on the board. The market was caught off guard by the Garrett trade and the price hasn't fully corrected. A healthy Stafford throwing to Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, and a revamped receiving corps — while Garrett disrupts every quarterback they face — is a legitimate Super Bowl roster.
The risk: Stafford's durability. He's missed time in multiple recent seasons and the Rams need him for 17 games. If he goes down, this ticket is dead. That's the correct risk for +800 on a team with Super Bowl talent on both sides of the ball.
San Francisco 49ers — +275 NFC Championship
The 49ers are the most well-constructed roster in the NFC and it's not particularly close. The offensive line is elite, CMC when healthy is the best running back in football, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk give them a deep passing game, and Kyle Shanahan is the best play-caller in the league. The defense is built to stop the run and create pressure without relying on blitzes.
+275 to reach the NFC Championship is plus money for a team that has been there four times in six years. The question is always health — the 49ers have been devastated by injuries in recent seasons. But at this price, you're getting meaningful value even factoring in that risk. They're a better team than the Rams and Eagles when everyone is healthy.
Win Totals: Overs and Unders Worth Playing
| Team | Win Total | Our Pick | Price | Key Reasoning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 | OVER | -115 | Burrow played 17 games twice — both times CIN won 11+ |
| Denver Broncos | 8.5 | UNDER | -108 | AFC West is brutal; QB situation is overhyped; defense not elite |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | OVER | +115 | Plus money on a Shanahan team with elite talent to win 11+? Yes. |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.5 | UNDER | -110 | Dak off his peak, offensive line regression, NFC East is stronger |
| Detroit Lions | 10.5 | OVER | -118 | Jared Goff has been the best QB in the NFC two years running; DET is built to win now |
| New England Patriots | 7.5 | UNDER | -108 | Rebuild year; talent gap vs. division is significant; schedule doesn't help |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.5 | PASS | — | Can go either way; too many unknowns at QB and on defense to take a side |
Bengals OVER 9.5 (-115)
The simplest futures bet on the board. Joe Burrow is one of the five best quarterbacks in the NFL. When he's healthy and plays a full season, the Bengals win 11+ games. The two seasons where they fell short were shortened by his injury — which clouds the historical record and artificially suppresses the win total. The Bengals' receiving corps (Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins) is among the best in the league. At -115, getting Burrow's ceiling at a price that implies only a 53% probability of clearing 10 wins is excellent value.
49ers OVER 10.5 (+115)
Plus money on the 49ers winning 11 games is the type of line that shows up once per offseason. San Francisco is a legitimate Super Bowl roster. The total of 10.5 is conservative by any measure — it implies the 49ers should be around 10-7, which is a .588 winning percentage. For a team with this coaching staff, this talent, and this track record, that price is a gift. The risk is injury — and it's a real one — but the plus money compensates for it.
Broncos UNDER 8.5 (-108)
The Broncos have been a narrative team for several offseasons without the wins to back it up. The AFC West is arguably the toughest division in football (Kansas City, Chargers, Raiders can all be competitive), and Denver's quarterback situation remains fragile. The defense isn't bad but it's not dominant enough to carry a team to 9 wins on its own. Near-even money on the under is the right structure.
Division Winners Worth Playing
| Division | Pick | Odds | Logic |
|---|---|---|---|
| AFC North | Cincinnati Bengals | +180 | Burrow in a division race = elite. BAL is close but CIN has the offensive edge with Chase. |
| NFC West | Los Angeles Rams | +220 | Garrett addition is massive. SF is priced at -160 to win the division but the NFC West is competitive. |
| NFC North | Detroit Lions | -135 | Best team in the division. Goff is elite, the line is strong, Campbell's culture wins close games. |
| AFC South | Houston Texans | -160 | C.J. Stroud and the Texans are the class of the division. High juice but justified — PASS at this price. |
The Bengals division winner at +180 is the play we like most in this section. Baltimore is good — but Baltimore is always good and always seems to fall slightly short in the moments that matter in January. Burrow with a healthy skill group in a division race plays at a different level. +180 for a team with a genuine ceiling is excellent value.
The Rams at +220 is the speculative division pick that pairs with the Super Bowl ticket. If Garrett is as dominant as advertised in year one with LA, the Rams win the NFC West. You're getting plus money on a team that added the single best defensive player in the game.
Who to Avoid
These are the teams priced in a way that offers no value regardless of how much you might like them:
- Kansas City Chiefs (Super Bowl -400): The Chiefs are great. They're probably the favorites. But you can't get enough return to justify the price. The variance of an NFL season means even the best team loses multiple times — and at -400, you need to be right almost every time. Pass.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-175 NFC East): The Eagles are a great team and probably the right call to win the division, but -175 for a division pick is juice-heavy. You can find better value elsewhere with similar confidence.
- Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl (+1400): On the surface this looks like longshot value. The Cowboys consistently underperform their talent in January. Dak Prescott has had one dominant playoff run in his career. Until that changes, the Cowboys deserve to be faded in futures markets.
Final Summary
The five plays we're taking into 2026: Rams Super Bowl (+800), Bengals division winner (+180), 49ers NFC Championship (+275), Bengals OVER 9.5 (-115), and Broncos UNDER 8.5 (-108). These spread risk across multiple outcomes — if the Bengals win the AFC North and the 49ers reach the NFC title game, we're profitable even if the Rams Super Bowl ticket doesn't cash.
For a deeper breakdown of every team's win total, schedule, and outlook, check out the 2026 NFL Season Preview: All 8 Divisions. Preseason kicks off in two weeks — lock in these prices now before the market moves.
For entertainment and informational purposes only. Futures odds are approximate and change frequently — verify current lines before placing any bet. Must be 18+ and located where sports betting is legal. Please gamble responsibly — 1-800-GAMBLER.