Matchup-adjusted projections for today's hitters. Sorted by projected H+R+RBI total.
Projections are for research purposes only and are not betting advice.
Hits, runs, and RBI prop bets are among the most popular player props in MLB betting. The challenge is identifying which hitters are in the best position to produce on any given day. Raw season stats only tell part of the story — a hitter facing a soft-tossing lefty with a 5.50 ERA at Coors Field is in a fundamentally different spot than one facing an ace at Oracle Park.
Our daily H+R+RBI projections account for these variables. Each hitter's season per-game rates for hits, runs, and RBI are adjusted using three factors: the opposing starting pitcher's quality relative to the league average, the ballpark's run environment, and the hitter's own production baseline. The result is a single projected H+R+RBI number that reflects the full context of that day's matchup.
These projections update automatically each morning once the MLB schedule and probable pitchers are posted. Use them as a starting point for your own research — compare the projected totals to the lines offered by your sportsbook to identify where the market may be undervaluing a hitter's upside.
How this works: Each hitter's season per-game rates for hits, runs, and RBI are adjusted based on the opposing pitcher's quality (ERA, WHIP, BB/9 relative to league average) and ballpark run factor.
The model starts with a hitter's season H/G, R/G, and RBI/G. It then applies a pitcher multiplier based on how much worse or better the opposing starter is relative to the league average in ERA (4.25), WHIP (1.28), and BB/9 (3.20). A pitcher with a 5.50 ERA and 1.60 WHIP will boost hitter projections, while an ace with a 2.50 ERA and 0.90 WHIP will suppress them. Ballpark run factors provide a final adjustment. All data comes from the free MLB Stats API and updates daily.